[Political content]

"aquila121" (aquila121) 01/18/2019 at 17:49 • Filed to: None

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Since I don’t frequent ‘The Cigar Lounge’ much (and therefore don’t have authorship), I’ll just leave this here— fi rst thought that came to mind when news broke of Buzzfeed’s report alleging Trump’s subornation of purjury:

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My political leanings aren’t hard to suss out, and I’m all for as much of Mueller’s report being made public as possible; keep in mind I’m not trying to jump the gun before the evidence warrants it, but yeah, I’m expecting to double down even harder for team “im peach the motherfucker.”

Stock up on popcorn, people.

KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time > aquila121 01/18/2019 at 18:10

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Bigly if true. I may be jaded, so l et’s see what comes of it, though because i t’s a scandal a week with this administration .

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time 01/18/2019 at 18:13

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it’s a scandal a week with this administration.

They’re over their quota for this week.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > aquila121 01/18/2019 at 18:14

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I am imagining a scenario where Mitch McConnell is the one telling Donald Trump it’s time to resign.

aquila121 > KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time 01/18/2019 at 18:15

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You’re right. And every other scandal pundits come out of the woodwork to say *this* is the turning point where the GOP/his base will turn on Trump , but it’s yet to happen.

At least we get to see more insanity from Guiliani. I’m baffled that he hasn’t been disbarred by now.

aquila121 > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/18/2019 at 18:22

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I doubt he'd do that in any scenario, but if McConnell asked, it's damn near a certainty that he wouldn't. Fine by me, I prefer Trump ends up in prison--he won't be able to tweet, then.

OPPOsaurus WRX > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/18/2019 at 18:49

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he’ll never resign. He'll have to be removed

For Sweden > aquila121 01/18/2019 at 19:45

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Not so fast! You must remember that if it’s not Oppositelock, it is Fake News

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aquila121 > For Sweden 01/18/2019 at 20:03

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Like my original assessment says, this is gonna get bumpy.

nermal > For Sweden 01/18/2019 at 20:40

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If Buzzfeed is Fake News, and CNN, which is also Fake News, is reporting that the news that Buzzfeed is reporting is fake.....

Hmmm. 

nermal > aquila121 01/18/2019 at 20:48

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Meh. I’m leaning towards Fake News on this one until it’s proven otherwise. Same as all other impeachment nonsense.

In reality nothing has come to light to suggest that impeachment of Trump and removal from office will be the right thing for the country, or even likely to pass. Everything is allegations at this point, and we have that whole innocent until proven guilty thing.

Whoever gets elected in 2024 will face the same thing, somebody on the other side will look for reasons to get them out of office ahead of schedule . It’s just the nature of the business.

Tristan > nermal 01/18/2019 at 21:02

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I don’t believe Trump conspired with the Russians any more than I believe Obama was born in Kenya. This taxpayer-funded  conspiracy theory shit is tiresome.

wafflesnfalafel > OPPOsaurus WRX 01/18/2019 at 21:28

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I don’t think McConnell can do that.  It’s looking like most of those folks have been compromised to some degree at least.  The trumpster will call for emergency powers which throws everything to the courts which he has been able to influence.  I do not see much good in any conceivable path at this point.

nermal > Tristan 01/18/2019 at 21:45

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I firmly bel ie ve that Obama’s birth certificate is filed in the same place as things like Trump’s tax returns and proof of WMDs in Iraq.

facw > wafflesnfalafel 01/18/2019 at 21:53

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The only way Trump is out is if Pence manages to convince ~20 Republican senators that they’d be better off with him in the White House.

aquila121 > nermal 01/18/2019 at 21:54

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“Elected in 2024"? Kinda skipping over the 2020 race, aren’t cha ?

I’ll agree removal from office is currently unlikely, because a number of GOP senators would need to vote to convict—and right now there isn’t anything definitive enough to sway public opinion of those who support those senators that they’ll vote against the president representing their own party.

As far as the “everything is allegations” stance you have, Trump and his campaign/administration have numerous times to Russian interests and high-level officials/oligarchs (we can agree this is a fact, correct?) . Manafort has been convicted of financial crimes that have Russian connections everywhere. Trump’s orbit changed its story several times on: the meeting between Don Jr., Manafort, et al about dirt on Hillary (“If it’s what you say, I love it, especially in the summer.”); about the extent of progress on Trump’s business project in Moscow (he signed a fucking letter of intent as the GOP nominee) ; the payoff to Stormy Daniels (“I know nothing about it—well, my lawyer paid $130,000 totally on his own...”) ; Flynn pled guilty to lying to the FBI about his connections as a foreign agent; and Trump ’s personally admitted ON CAMERA that he fired Comey to relieve pressure involving investigation into his Russian connections. I could go on.

Mueller’s gotten how many guilty pleas or indictments involving Trump campaign/others close to him? This is a massive amount of smoke, such that I cannot share your stance that there’s no fire . I just pray the Mueller report is made public, and that the evidence contained within persuades a fair amount of people who are somehow at present still convinced of Trump’s total innocence .

I’ll close by saying that Trump campaigned as the “law and order” candidate, so he must be subject to those laws he swore to uphold when he took office. Nixon’s ‘when the President does it, it isn’t illegal’ didn’t fly then, and it doesn’t fly now.

facw > nermal 01/18/2019 at 21:56

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That’s what impeachment provides though, a trial to prove guilt. So if you are saying he can’t be impeached because hasn’t been proven guilty, then basically you are saying that the founders created a mechanism that could never be used because it requires someone to have been proven guilty without actually haven been proven guilty.

nermal > facw 01/18/2019 at 22:14

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It’s possible to be impeached without being removed from office - See Bill Clinton.

I don’t think either will happen, because there isn’t enough evidence. As of today at least. 

facw > nermal 01/18/2019 at 22:20

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I would imagine even if there was evidence, the Senate wouldn’t remove him, unfortunately.

nermal > aquila121 01/18/2019 at 22:49

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I think Trump will win re-election in 2020 as long as the economy keeps moving forward , and nothing concrete comes of the Russia investigation. Therefore, next president in 2024. 

Manafort’s convictions are for financial crimes from before the time he worked on Trump’s campaign. His long resume working on the campaigns of other R presidents dating back to Regan gives credibility to giving him a position on the campaign in the first place. Remember, he wasn’t brought in as campaign manager , he was promoted to it. All of Manafort’s actions support the theory that the Trump campaign did a poor job of vetting him. This will be a key point in the continuing investigations, whether Trump had knowledge of what Manafort was doing. The timeline as I read it is that Trump did not have knowledge originally, but then did find out & fired Manafort as a result.

Beyond that, the only two remaining issues are the Stormy payments, which work out to a campaign finance violation, as well as the existence of the Pee Tape. 

nermal > facw 01/18/2019 at 22:54

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It depends on the nature of the evidence. No senator will vote to remove a president of the same party for petty stuff.

Now, a recorded phone call between Trump and Putin conspiring against the US? He’s gone.

A few hookers giggling and peeing on a bed? Nah.

aquila121 > nermal 01/19/2019 at 00:17

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Um, the economy that’s in turmoil right now because of Trump and his petulant insistence on a wall—one that would be a logistical and financial nightmare to construct and woefully ineffective at dealing with the root cause of undocumented immigrants (visa overstays)? If Trump wants credit for all the positive growth the economy’s had since he’s taken office, it’s his fault that the stock market tanked a bunch in December and everything after involved in this unprecedented shutdown . He’s said he’s proud to shut down the government, he did so, and hundreds of thousands of government workers are without pay. The Democratic House has passed a funding bill that had unanimous support when it passed the Senate. McConnell is just giving cover by not calling a vote now because it would embarrass the GOP if Trump vetos (and must consider an override of) it.

Trump’s not in a great spot—he’s touted himself as a master dealmaker his whole life, and if the border wall was such a necessary answer to a crisis, why the hell didn’t he make it a priority to get it done in the last two years, when all of the legislature had Republican majorities? But he’s failed at passing any meaningful legislation besides the tax reform, which a number of non-partisan groups agree disproportionately benefits the wealthy/corporations, not the low- and middle-class . The facade is starting to crack, I bet even some staunch supporters in his base will reconsider voting for Trump again if he can’t deliver on his wall promise (which wasn’t Mexico supposed to pay for it?). Meanwhile, Pelosi’s not stupid—if she caves on wall funding, the progressives will be in an uproar, and Trump will act like a toddler again and hold the government hostage on the next issue he wants. She’s got some power to stall him, and he’s offered nothing to entice her to dal with him (and his complete untrustworthiness when it comes to holding up his end of any deal is a thing, too). House Committees have subpoena power now . And that’s not even considering Mueller’s evidence, report, and conclusions—the House c ommittees can run their own separate investigations into Trump’s businesses, taxes, Russia ties, and potential obstruction of ju stice . I’m optimistic about the “as long as nothing concrete comes of the Russia investigation.”

The GOP has got to be looking for an out where they can back a candidate who doesn’t shoot his own dick with damaging tweets every week, and say the quiet part loud as far as racism and “grab ‘em by the pussy.” They want someone who’s less erratic and embarrassing. He’s a fool, any pretty soon it will be much harder for them to convince anyone that emperor Trump actually * does* have clothes. Bring on 2020.

nermal > aquila121 01/20/2019 at 15:49

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The stock market activity in December   and recent instability is tied to Fed interest rate increases. Economy heats up too much, Fed rate goes up to keep it in check. Economy slows down too much, Fed rate goes down to encourage borrowing (thus stimulating the economy).

The economy definitely isn’t in turmoil right now. Overall g rowth is slowing down, which is certainly a thing but not a bad thing. Employment data is excellent, there’s never been a better time to find a job, find a better job, or start a new business. Unemployment is at historical low levels. Average incomes and purchasing power are rising.

Trump owns the current govt shutdown, no argument in that regard . The Ds are certainly trying to exploit it to gain points with the public, however. There are currently ~800k people that have missed one paycheck, and may miss a 2nd. Trump also signed a bill last week guaranteeing them back pay.

I honestly think that Trump will spin The Wall in his favor regardless of outcome . If it gets built, great! If not, it’s because the Ds are being obstructionist losers as usual, but we’re still committed to it.

Both the GOP and the voting majority DGAF about tweeting, or pussy grabbing, or marital infidelity, or any of that nonsense. More vote selfishly than for any other reason. Trump merely needs to appeal to enough of them in the right areas (just like last time), and he’ll do that economically. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > For Sweden 01/21/2019 at 10:22

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Good on Mueller for coming out quickly to kill this - just gives more credibility to what he will reveal in the end.